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Indians: Carmona set for first season as No. 1 starter

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

CLEVELAND — Fausto Carmona will make his first Opening Day start in his first full season as an ace today when the Indians host the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field.

After watching the right-hander bounce back from consecutive subpar seasons last year, manager Manny Acta thinks Carmona is up to the task on both fronts.

“I think he’s in a better spot confidence-wise,” Acta said of Carmona, who went 13-14 with a 3.77 ERA over 33 starts in 2010. “He had a tremendous season last year. He won 13 games for us, and this was a team. There was a lot of times that he pitched very well and didn’t get the win.

“Fausto will be fine.”

Carmona, who was unavailable for comment prior to a workout at Progressive Field on Thursday, was a Cy Young candidate in 2007 before enduring back-to-back seasons of struggles.

His performance last year seemed to signal a return to form, which was strengthened by a positive spring training effort from Carmona (5-2, 3.72 ERA in seven starts).

His No. 1 starter status will get an early test today, when he squares off against White Sox ace Mark Buehrle, a veteran left-hander who has been tough on the Indians in the past.

“He makes it tough for just about everybody,” Acta said of Buehrle, who beat the Indians on Opening Day last season, making the defensive play of the year at Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field. “He’s been doing it for a long time.”

Closing time

Right-hander Chris Perez was one of the most effective relievers in the American League last year. The trick is to do it again.

“This year is probably more important than last year,” Perez said, “just to validate what I did last year, that it wasn’t a fluke.”

As a parttime closer last year, Perez saved 23 games, posting the second-lowest ERA (1.71) among AL relievers. At 25, he will enter this season as a fulltime closer for the first time in his career.

“He had been lights out since Day One,” Acta said during spring training. “I can’t wait to hand him the ball in the ninth inning.”

Progress report

Acta said Grady Sizemore (microfracture surgery left knee) would continue to play center field every other day in minor league games in Arizona, increasing his innings count from the five he is at now until he gets to nine.

The three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove award winner will continue his rehab either in Arizona or with one of the minor league affiliates, depending on the weather.

“After that, we’ll see where we’re at,” Acta said. “We can’t put a timetable on when he’s going to be here.”

Sizemore has predicted that he will be back before May.

Prior to the workout, Acta attended the public memorial service for Indians legend Bob Feller in Cleveland Heights.

“What a man,” Acta said of Feller, who left baseball in the prime of his career to serve in World War II. “It’s too bad that the majority of young people don’t know what Bob Feller meant to America and baseball. He gave his life to his country and to baseball.

“I don’t know too many players that would give up four years of their career to voluntarily serve in Afghanistan. That’s something we all have to value.”

Crowe’s seat

It was good news bad news for outfielder Trevor Crowe and his ailing right shoulder.

Crowe, who hit .251 in 122 games for Cleveland last year, is scheduled to undergo surgery on the shoulder Saturday and will miss at least four months. He avoided reconstructive surgery that would have sidelined him for 6-8 months.

“It wasn’t as serious as we thought,” Acta said.

Rotation roundup

Carmona and Buehrle will open the season today at 3:05 p.m., followed by right-hander Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Edwin Jackson at 1:05 p.m. Saturday.

Right-hander Justin Masterson will start the series finale Sunday (1:05 p.m.) against White Sox lefty John Danks.

Indians right-handers Josh Tomlin and Mitch Talbot will make their season debuts Tuesday and Wednesday against Boston at Progressive Field.

Opening up

The Indians are 58-52 all-time in the home opener, with a 57-53 mark in the season opener.

(bullet) Feller’s victory total of four is the most by a Cleveland pitcher in home openers.

(bullet) The Indians have played to one-run games in 34 home openers, posting a 19-15 record.

(bullet) Carmona is the 56th different pitcher to start a home opener for Cleveland.

(bullet) This will be the 21st time the Indians have hosted the White Sox in the home opener, second-most behind the Tigers (32). Chicago has been the opponent in four of the last 10 home openers.

(bullet) Since moving to Jacobs/Progressive Field in 1994, the Indians have sold out all 18 home openers.

Roundin’ third

The Indians acquired minor league outfielder Bubba Bell from the Red Sox for cash considerations. Bell, 28, spent last season at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he hit .293 with six homers and 49 RBIs in 104 games. Bell, a career .292 hitter in six seasons in the minors (all with Boston), was assigned to Triple-A Columbus. … Today, 3:05, Channel 3/STO/WTAM 1100-AM/WEOL 930-AM.

Contact Chris Assenheimer at 329-7136 or cassenheimer@chroniclet.com.

Young Indians optimistic in expected rebuilding year

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

Projected lineups

Indians

Michael Brantley, CF

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS

Shin-Soo Choo, RF

Carlos Santana, C

Travis Hafner, DH

Orlando Cabrera, 2B

Austin Kearns, LF

Matt LaPorta, 1B

Jack Hannahan, 3B

Fausto Carmona, RHP

White Sox

Juan Pierre, LF

Gordon Beckham, 2B

Adam Dunn, DH

Paul Konerko, 1B

Alex Rios, CF

Carlos Quentin, RF

A.J. Pierzynski, C

Alexei Ramirez, SS

Brent Morel, 3B

Mark Buehrle, LHP

Chris Assenheimer

The Chronicle-Telegram

CLEVELAND — Opening Day breeds optimism, and the Indians were no exception to the rule Thursday 24 hours before playing their first regular season game.

Though they will open the year under cold conditions against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field today, it didn’t stop some Cleveland players from heating up expectations for the 2011 season.

“Playoffs,” right fielder Shin-Soo Choo answered, when asked what the team’s goal was this season, “first in the division.”

“Our goal is to win the division and make the playoffs,” said designated hitter Travis Hafner, who the Indians are once again hoping has overcome a chronic shoulder ailment and return to his feared from from 2004-07. “Yeah, we have a lot of development to do, but I think we have the talent in this room to do it.”

That is a lofty goal for a team coming off consecutive 90-loss seasons and will employ the youngest roster in the majors. Not too mention, the Indians will enter the season with an unproven rotation and key position players coming off injury-plagued years.

That’s why the Indians have been picked nationally to finish no higher than fourth place in the Central Division behind Minnesota, Detroit and Chicago. And it’s why not everyone in the Cleveland clubhouse was talking postseason.

“I wouldn’t go as far as playoffs,” said right-hander Chris Perez, who enters his first season as a fulltime closer after a banner 2010. “But we do have the chance to compete. The pieces are there. We just have to do what every other team has to do, to stay healthy and get some breaks.”

It all begins to play out today against a familiar foe and under less than ideal conditions in Cleveland, which had snowfall as early as Wednesday.

Both the Indians and White Sox, who have met six of the last seven years on opening day, left the spring training Arizona sun and 80-degree temperatures to return to snow and 40 degrees.

“It was a little kick in the face,” Perez said. “As long as it’s not going to snow during the game. It’s different, but I think it’s an advantage for the pitchers, so I’m fine with that.”

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen isn’t.

“It’s very stupid to play in Cleveland right now,” Guillen said, as grounds crew members cleared snow from atop a tarp covering the outfield at Progressive Field. “Nothing against Cleveland. We expect that when you play on opening day in Cleveland. A couple years ago they canceled like 30 games here.

“(But) we are here and we have to play through snow.”

Actually, the weather forecast says they won’t. While it is expected to be chilly with temperatures in the mid-40s, snow is not expected to fall under afternoon sun.

“I don’t think it’s going to be too bad,” Hafner said. “It will be a good day for baseball.”

And after all, it is Opening Day. It’s the one day during the baseball season that players’ managers’ and fans’ spirits can’t be dampened — or frozen.

“It’s like a holiday for us players,” Perez said. “It’s what we prepared for the whole offseason.”

“It’s one of the best days of the year,” Hafner said. “The city’s excited. We’re excited. It’s a special day.”

“We’re cold, but we’re excited,” said second-year manager Manny Acta. Opening Day is here.”

Contact Chris Assenheimer at 329-7136 or cassenheimer@chroniclet.com.


Wide variation in milestones for babies, toddlers

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

By RASHA MADKOUR, Associated Press

MIAMI — I’ll come right out and say it: My son’s a late bloomer.

While my younger brother famously walked at 9 months, my own son hit that milestone at a ripe 16 months. I looked longingly at infants who waved on demand, and even blew kisses, until suddenly, unprompted, a few months short of his second birthday, my son flapped his pudgy hands and said brightly: “Bye-bye.”

Milestones like these can be a helpful way for parents and experts to gauge whether a child is developing normally — physically, verbally, socially. But for many parents in today’s hypercompetitive and hypervigilant parenting environment, having a baby who rolls over at 2 months affords coveted bragging rights, while having a baby who doesn’t induces anxious Internet searches.

“It is something that all parents struggle with. It’s hard to avoid it, the comparisons,” says Claire Lerner, a child development specialist with Zero to Three, a nonprofit focused on early development.

But Lerner says there’s a wide variation for when kids achieve the classic baby and toddler milestones.

So Lerner tells parents about this big-picture indicator: “What’s important is you’re seeing them make forward progress.” If your child isn’t crawling yet but she has started rolling to reach her toys, that’s progress, Lerner says. “If your child is sort of stagnant and not making forward progress, that to me is the thing to watch for.”

Patricia Wright of the Easter Seals, an organization that advocates for children with disabilities and special needs, encourages a more aggressive approach. Early intervention is key, Wright says. Parents should discuss any concerns with their child’s doctor — sooner rather than later. “I don’t want parents to worry for three months,” and then spend another three months waiting for an appointment with a specialist, she says.

Even something as common as a language delay can be helped by early intervention, Wright says. A speech pathologist can give parents tips on how to create a language-rich environment for their child and encourage speech. Lerner agrees that it’s worth checking with an expert because parental anxiety can actually stymie a child’s progress. Children pick up on the feeling and can feel frustrated at themselves, resentful about the pressure, or discouraged from trying because the situation has gotten so stressful.

Kristine Watson of Austin, Texas, used to be one of those constantly worried moms. She’d feel fine about her son’s progress until they went to a baby class, where she would be barraged by questions about what he could and could not do, followed by hints that she should get him checked out.

“Every kid was given some kind of diagnosis if they didn’t fit into this exact mold,” Watson says. “It does make you paranoid that there is something wrong when there isn’t.”

When her son turned 3, she realized he was perfectly fine and she stopped tracking everything. “I spent so much time looking at him and analyzing him instead of enjoying him.”

Her toddler who was more interested in exploring than playing with other kids is now a first grader who has friends but would still rather swim or do martial arts than play on a soccer team.

For La Habra Heights, Calif. mom Sarah Christensen, it came naturally to do what many experts recommend: Follow your child’s lead and don’t worry too much.

Her 1½-year-old daughter can climb a small tree and has been eating with a spoon and fork since she was a wee 10-month-old. On the other hand, she only recently said the word “Momma,” about half a year later than many children.

“I feel like it all sort of evens out in the end,” Christensen said.

Indeed, my little guy may be a little slower out of the gate, but he catches up pretty quickly. At 21 months, he is a master Lego builder and can count to 10 in both Arabic and English — almost perfectly.

Online

Cultivating creativity in our children and ourselves starts with a willingness to dream

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

By Judy Hevrdejs, OrlandoSentinel.com/momsatwork

Remember the garage band you had in junior high, the gear you and your friends pulled together, the great sounds you created, bouncing ideas off one another?

Now go back further to your dreams of building structures bigger than your house with Legos or Lincoln Logs or Erector Sets and your big sister joining you in creating the tallest tower you ever made. Or remember having a mountain of crayons and a huge blank sheet — no lines! — of paper, and you swirled and zigzagged all of your tiny tot energy and creativity onto the paper in purples, greens, silvers, yellows and oranges.

Remember the fun you had.

“There is a euphoria to creating,” says David Edwards, an educator and author of “The Lab: Creativity and Culture” (Harvard University Press, $22.95). “It’s hard to understand from the outside … but it’s very hopeful and it has something to do with being young again, because at the end of the day, when we’re young, we’re all in the blank page mode.”

Edwards knows it’s hard to teach creativity. He also knows it doesn’t require a craft kit. What it does need is a nurturing environment where ideas flow, the imagination plays, and parents or teachers or mentors or friends really listen.

Such an environment — call it a sandbox or a lab — is built around dialogue and open-mindedness. “It’s an environment that encourages the creative mind and fundamentally the environment that makes us believe in our dreams.”

And it can happen as easily at the family dinner table as it does at the water cooler where co-workers and friends toss around ideas — as long as listening happens.

“I can’t overemphasize the importance of listening to idea development,” says Edwards, who teaches at Harvard University’s school of engineering and applied sciences and oversees ArtScience Labs in the U.S. and France. “You have to listen really, really carefully. And that happens when you grow up in a family where you’ve got to listen and people are asking you what do you think.

“It’s a telling of my dreams, but also listening to what everybody is saying back to me,” he adds. “People invest in our dreams when our dreams become their dreams.”

The back and forth might look something like this nugget from “The Lab”:

“A child tries out a magic trick on his brother, then a parent, then a teacher, and finally a class,” writes Edwards. “A choreographer tries out a new dance with a mate, later with skilled dancers, later still with a critic.”

Such approaches, Edwards explains, “help us develop ideas by trial and error,” moving them from less specialized environments and minimizing the pain that we may have something wrong.

So put down your electronic gadgets (yes, everyone) and make time to be a communicative family. And communicative means honest:

“It’s important to enter into the dream world of the child and take seriously the child’s dreams. That’s something that will not happen a lot in school,” says Edward, who has three sons ages 8 to 12.

The next step? “Encourage your kids to pursue a dream project outside of your family space,” he says. “One of the things creative people do is that they glom onto mentors.”

In our evolving world, “the creative mind is an engaged mind,” says Edwards. “It’s hard to really be engaged or even teaching our children or teaching our students to prepare themselves for the future without instilling in them this spirit of creativity.”

Creative thinking and your career

“If you ask CEOs of companies what qualities they are most looking for in employees today, across the board,” educator David Edwards says, “you’re seeing: ‘We’re looking for communicative, passionate people who can … carry ideas forward in complex environments and communicate effectively’ — all these kind of things that we’re not really teaching in school.

“These skills are in some ways fundamental to learn when you’re young,” he says. “It has always been true, but it’s the benefits of being a creative person today — and the liability of not — that are just kind of going up.”

— J.H.

Listen to this: more thoughts from David Edwards

  • Be a communicative family.
  • Learn to listen.
  • Encourage kids to pursue a dream project outside the family.
  • Keep an open mind when discussing creative ideas, he writes: “Creative people and organizations thrive on dialogue around creative ideas — and also occasionally fear it.”

I-X Indoor Amusement Park

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

I-X Indoor Amusement Park

I-X Indoor Amusement Park

Enter now for your chance to win 2-FREE passes to the I-X Indoor Amusement Park in a random drawing. Winners will be chosen on Tuesday, April 19 AND notified by email.

Must be 18 years old to enter. Must be able to pick up tickets from The Gazette. For more details on the event go : www.ixamusementpark.com.

Click here to enter.

Ohio bargaining limits prevail, unions vow fight

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

By JULIE CARR SMYTH
The Associated Press
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio lawmakers have had their chance to vote on a bill limiting collective bargaining rights for 350,000 public workers across the state. Next will be the public’s turn.
Even before the contentious Senate Bill 5 — in some ways tougher than Wisconsin’s — had cleared the Legislature late Wednesday, unions and Democrats in this once-proud labor stronghold vowed to put it on November’s ballot as a referendum.
“O-H-I-O! S.B. 5 has got to go!” protesters chanted ahead of a final Senate vote of 17-16 that sent the bill to Gov. John Kasich, who planned to sign it Thursday. The vote followed a day filled with Statehouse demonstrations by about 750 people, who raucously chanted and shouted throughout the process. After a House vote of 53-44, opponents spewed expletives at House members.
The vitriol wasn’t limited to the Statehouse.
Leo Geiger, 34, a Republican who works as a sewer inspector for the city of Dayton, said he’s “deathly afraid that this is going to affect me, my family and the entire state of Ohio in an incredibly negative way.”
He believes the bill is political payback for unions’ support of Democrats in November’s election.
“I find this to be loathsome,” he said from Dayton on Wednesday night. He didn’t attend protests because he couldn’t take the time off. “I find this to be disrespectful to Ohioans and disrespectful to the process of democracy.”
The measure affects safety workers, teachers, nurses and a host of other government personnel. It allows unions to negotiate wages and certain working conditions but not health care, sick time or pension benefits. It gets rid of automatic pay increases, and replaces them with merit raises or performance pay. Workers would also be banned from striking.
A ballot challenge would stall implementation of the law that Republicans championed as vital to Ohio’s economic future. Backers have 90 days after Kasich signs the bill to gather 231,148 valid signatures from at least half Ohio’s 88 counties to get it on the fall ballot.
“Local government and taxpayers need control over their budgets. This bill, as amended and changed, is a bill that will give control back to the people who pay the bills,” House Speaker Bill Batchelder said Wednesday.
Kasich has said his $55.5 billion, two-year state budget counts on unspecified savings from lifting union protections to fill an $8 billion hole.
During House debate, state Rep. Robert Hagan, a Democrat from Youngstown, questioned whether the bill was aimed at saving money.
“Don’t ever lie to us and don’t be hypocritical and don’t dance around it as if it’s finances, because you know what it is: It’s to bust the union,” Hagan told his fellow lawmakers.
Democratic state Sen. Charleta Tavares, a recent Columbus city councilwoman, called the bill “paternalistic, patronizing, disrespectful and condescending” to city leaders who balance their budgets annually, not every two years as Ohio does.
As she awaited the Senate vote, Pickerington teacher Patricia Kuhn-Morgan said educating kids is the best way to create jobs. She predicted Wednesday’s votes will hurt GOP lawmakers on Election Day.
“I’ve spoken to a lot of educators who are typically straight-ticket Republicans that have said to me that they won’t ever vote for another Republican because of how this bill’s been pushed through and the democratic process has been abused,” she said.
But Chris Littleton, who represents a coalition of tea party groups called the Ohio Liberty Council, disagreed. He said tea party backers who helped seal Republican victories last fall are all for the changes.
“We set making Ohio a right-to-work state and complete elimination of employee unions as a primary objective for 2011,” he said. “So we would have liked to see it go even further, but we are definitely supportive of this measure.”
Though protests were much larger in Wisconsin, Ohio unions claim they hold the hearts of a majority of voters in their political swing state. Republicans say polling indicates a high number of voters, though perhaps ones not as vocal as union supporters, favor the collective bargaining changes and would uphold the new law.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker signed a bill this month eliminating most of state workers’ collective bargaining rights. That measure exempts police officers and firefighters; Ohio’s does not.
The Ohio bill has drawn thousands of demonstrators, prompted a visit from the Rev. Jesse Jackson and packed hearing rooms in the weeks before the Senate passed the earlier version of the measure. Its reception in the House was quieter, as unions resolved themselves to its approval and shifted their strategy to the fall ballot.
Democratic state Sen. Joe Schiavoni said the way the bill had been rushed through the legislative process without union input was unfair — but he said voters would have the last word.
At the ballot box, he said, “all Ohioans will get the opportunity to right the wrongs they committed in the last election, and, ladies and gentlemen, that is fair.”
Associated Press writers Ann Sanner and JoAnne Viviano contributed to this report.
___
ohio-flag2

West Salem man gets 7 years in prison for vehicular homicide

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

MEDINA — A West Salem man was sentenced this morning to seven years in prison for causing the death of a Spencer man in a drunken driving accident in June.

James Casey, 26, was sentenced in Medina County Common Pleas Court after previously entering a no contest plea to aggravated vehicular homicide, which is a second-degree felony. He will also have his driver’s license suspended for life, Common Pleas’ Judge James L. Kimbler ruled.

The family of the victim, 60-year-old Danny Saffle, was present for the sentencing and read a statement asking for Casey to “sit in prison for a long time and think” about what he did.

Casey also made a statement in court apologizing for his actions.

Check Friday’s print edition of The Gazette for more information on this story.

Gov. Kasich to sign bill limiting Ohio’s union bargaining

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

COLUMBUS — Ohio Gov. John Kasich plans to sign a bill to limit the collective bargaining rights of 350,000 public workers.

Kasich plans to sign it today. The Republican announced his plan in an email to supporters. A spokesman confirmed the bill-signing.

The bill was approved Wednesday by the GOP-led state House and Senate.

The measure prompted weeks of pro-labor protests by thousands of people amid a national debate over union rights keyed by a similar bill passed in Wisconsin.

The Ohio bill applies to safety forces, teachers and many other government workers. It prevents unions from negotiating wages but not health care, sick time or pension benefits. It also eliminates automatic pay increases and bans strikes.

Opponents have vowed to push for a ballot repeal.

Wildlife officials find fatal bat fungus in Ohio

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

COLUMBUS — State wildlife officials say a disease that has killed more than 1 million bats in eastern North America has spread to Ohio.

The fungus that causes lesions on bats’ muzzles was found recently on bats in an abandoned limestone mine in the Wayne National Forest in southern Ohio’s Lawrence County.

Officials said the white-nose syndrome has been confirmed in 15 states and two Canadian provinces. They are concerned bats throughout the state could become infected with the fungus — which is nearly always fatal.

Biologists believe the fungus is spread mainly from bat to bat, and it doesn’t affect human health.

Officials said bats are an important part of the ecosystem because they eat night-flying insect pests, including mosquitoes and beetles.

State and federal agencies are monitoring Ohio’s bat population.

U.S. underestimated hispanic population, literally

March 31, 2011 in Uncategorized

pew-study1How Many Hispanics?

Comparing New Census Counts with the Latest Census Estimates

By Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, Pew Hispanic Center

To read a breakdown of Ohio click here

The number of Hispanics counted in the 2010 Census was nearly 1 million more than expected, based on the most recent Census Bureau population estimates, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center.

The 2010 Census count of Hispanics was 50,478,0001

By comparison, for the total U.S. population, the 2010 Census count of 308.7 million was

barely lower (about 232,000 people) than the bureau’s population estimate for April 1, 2010.  Compared with results a decade ago, the national Hispanic count in the 2010 Census was closer to the bureau’s population estimates than it had been in 2000. The 2000 Census count included 10% more Hispanics than the population estimates, and state-level discrepancies also were larger than in 2010.  compared with 49,522,000 Hispanics in the bureau’s own estimates. The count was 1.9% higher (955,000 people) than the estimated  population. In 32 states, the 2010 Census count of Hispanics was at least 2% higher than the  estimates; in nine states, it was at least 2% lower than the estimates. In the nine remaining states and the District of Columbia, the difference was less than 2% in either direction.

Unlike the decennial Census, designed to be a 100% count of the U.S. population, the Census Bureau’s population estimates are annual updates of counts from the previous census based largely on birth certificates, death certificates, immigration data and other government records. The most recent published state population estimates for Hispanics were as of July 1, 2009. For this analysis, the Hispanic estimates were updated to Census Day, April 1, 2010, by extrapolating the 2009 estimates based on each state’s Hispanic population growth rate from  2008 to 2009. This report replaces an analysis published March 15, 2011, which examined  Census 2010 data and population estimates from 33 states.

Numbers throughout this report are rounded to the nearest thousand.

The Census Bureau also analyzes a sample of federal tax returns for people who moved from one state to another (linked to  other data on age, sex, race and ethnicity of the tax filers) to calculate the number and characteristics of in-migrants and outmigrants for each state. For group quarters such as prisons and college dormitories, the bureau mainly relies on counts supplied by states and localities.

How Many Hispanics?

www.pewhispanic.org

State detail

The Pew Hispanic Center analysis indicates that states with large  percentage differences between their Hispanic census counts and census  estimates also were likely to have large percentage differences between census  counts and census estimates for their total populations. This reflects the large role that Hispanics play in overall  population growth-nationally, Hispanics accounted for 56% of the U.S. increase. Hispanics have accounted for most of the discrepancy between 2010  Census counts and census estimates of states’ total populations.

In addition, according to the Pew Hispanic Center analysis, states that  have Hispanic populations under a million people (including many where Hispanic counts grew sharply) collectively had a larger percentage gap between their census counts and census  estimates than did the nine states with larger, long-duration Hispanic communities.

Those nine traditional Hispanic states include Arizona, California, Colorado,  Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Texas. Each has  more than a million Hispanic residents (except New Mexico, with 953,000).  Collectively, 28% of their population is Hispanic. As a group, those states are  home to 38.6 million Hispanics, according to the 2010 Census, and their aggregate census count was about  362,000 (or .9%) larger than their

Figure 1

States with Largest Differences between Census Counts and Population

Estimates for Hispanics, April 1, 2010 (%)

Note: Base of percentage is population estimate. For the nation the

Census count was 1.9% higher than the estimate Sources: Census–Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of Redistricting_Files-PL_94-171 for states; Estimate–extrapolation of Vintage 2009 population estimates for July 1, 2008 and 2009.

PEW HISPANIC CENTER 15.9% 13.2 10.8 10.7 10.4 9.8 9.7 9.1 9.0 8.5

Alabama, Louisiana, Kansas, Maryland, Delaware, Kentucky, Wyoming, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Iowa

Census higher than estimate -0.3, -0.4, -3.3,  -3.3, -6.1, -8.6, -8.7, -10.1, -10.2, -12.9, -14.3

District of Columbia, Colorado, Vermont, New Hampshire,West Virginia, Montana, Arizona, South Dakota, Maine, North Dakota, Alaska,

Census lower than estimate

How Many Hispanics?

www.pewhispanic.org

Aggregate Census Estimate.

In the other 41 states and District of Columbia, Hispanics make up 7% of the total population. These states as a group are home to 11.9 million Hispanics, and their combined 2010 Census count was 593,000 people (or 5.3%) higher than their combined census estimate. Among them was Alabama, where the Hispanic census count of 186,000 people was 16% higher than its census estimate, the largest gap among states. At the other extreme, the census count of 39,000 Hispanics in Alaska was 14% below the most recent census estimate. (Smaller populations by nature tend to be more volatile than large ones, so even a small numerical difference could result in a large percentage change.)  In the nine states with large Hispanic populations, five had gaps of more than two percentage points in either direction between census estimates and census counts. In four, the count was higher than the estimate. In New Jersey, the census count of 1.555 million was 4.6% higher than the census estimate for Hispanics. In Florida, the census count of 4.224 million was 3.7% higher than the estimate. In New York, the census count of 3.417 million Hispanics was 2.9% higher than the census estimate. In New Mexico, the census count of 953,000 was 2.6% higher  than the estimate of Hispanics.

In the fifth, Arizona, the census count of 1.895 million Hispanics was 8.7% lower than the estimate; it also was lower than the Census Bureau’s estimates for 2008 and 2009. The gap in Arizona was almost entirely due to a lower-than-expected Census count in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. The numerical gap of 180,000 between Arizona’s 2010 Census count and census estimate of Hispanics was the largest among states.

As the accompanying table shows, there were differences between census counts and census estimates for Hispanics in most parts of the country.

Accuracy of Estimates

The accuracy of these census population estimates is important not only because they are the major source of basic demographic data in the years between census counts, but also because they are the basis for distributing billions of dollars in federal funds during those years. They are relied on for sample design and weighting in widely used federal surveys, including the bureau’s own American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey from which federal unemployment and poverty rates are calculated. The estimates also are used to calculate birth and death rates for the total population and for sub populations such as race and ethnic groups.

The Census Bureau has invested study and effort over the past decade to improve its  population estimates after the publication of 2000 Census counts pointed to a shortfall in  census estimates published in the 1990s.4

How Many Hispanics?

www.pewhispanic.org

In 2000, the population estimate for April 1, 2000 of 274.5 million was about 7 million people short of the census count for that day of 281.4 million people, or 2.5%. Later analysis attributed much of the gap to a low census estimate of Hispanics, the nation’s largest minority group. The 2000 Census count of Hispanics of 35.3 million was nearly 10% larger than the official estimate for April 1, 2000 of 32.2 million.

Much of the problem, the bureau concluded, was that the estimates failed to account for growth in the number of unauthorized immigrants. Analysts also concluded the 1990 Census count had been too low, so the estimates began from a base that was too small.

At the state level, the gap between 2000 Census counts and census estimates of Hispanics was even wider (for this analysis the 1999 estimates were extrapolated to Census Day 2000). In eight states, the count was 50% or more above the estimate, higher than any variation found in the 2010 state census counts. In only three states was the census count within 2% of the census estimate.The bureau made several changes to its population estimates methodology over the past decade. Most notably, it began including state-level data obtained from the American Community Survey, which collects information on characteristics of the U.S. population, including immigrants. The bureau also devoted additional effort to outreach in the 2010 Census to groups that have been hard to count in the past, such as immigrants.